TrendForce warns notebook prices rising, demand falling by 2027

TrendForce projects that global notebook shipments could fall by as much as a high-single-digit percentage in 2027. The exact drop depends on whether manufacturers pass rising component costs to buyers or absorb them on thinner margins.

From the report: "TrendForce’s latest notebook industry research reveals that the primary risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand."

Shipments in 2026 were propped up by improved CPU availability, early manufacturer purchasing, and replacement demand pulled forward from later periods. That borrowed momentum leaves 2027 with weaker replacement activity. As cheaper inventory runs out, brands face direct pressure from higher CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices.

TrendForce notes that in Q3 2026, 68% of a mainstream notebook's bill of materials (at a $900 MSRP) went to CPU, DRAM, and SSD. If those costs keep climbing next year, brands must choose among three bad options: raise retail prices and risk lower demand, absorb the increase and sacrifice gross margins, or cut specs and look less competitive.

DRAM supply is expected to stay tight through 2027 because of AI demand, while PC DRAM risks limited growth. NAND Flash supply constraints should ease by mid-2027 as new capacity arrives.

What this means for you: If you were planning a laptop purchase in late 2026 or 2027, buying sooner could save you money. Higher retail prices are likely if component costs stay elevated.

On tariffs, TrendForce estimates that unless they rise further, manufacturers may move some notebook production back to China to cut costs. China's share of global notebook production is expected to hit 79% in 2026, up from 76% in 2025, and could exceed 80% in 2027.

• CPU
• DRAM
• laptop prices
• notebook shipments
• SSD
• tariffs
• TrendForce